Tension over Satellite Strike

Many of you will recall that back in mid-january , the Chinese government tested a ballistic missile against a derelict weather satellite, the first test of anti-satellite technology in some twenty years. This action created a large debris cloud that may have damaged some nearby satellites, and has the potential to even damage spacecraft on their way to the moon or beyond. Some of the more liberal estimates from analysts in think tanks and newspapers put the number of satellite fragments floating around as high as three hundred thousand -- most of these too small to be much more than moon dust -- but several pieces of shrapnel large enough to do serious damage. The spectacular detonation of two space shuttles should be enough to remind the public that in space, very small things can create very large problems.

More interesting to this author was the large amount of speculation at the time as to whether or not this would precipitate the beginnings of a new "space arms race." The major nations of the world, it was reasoned, might compete to show off progressively more powerful ground-to-space weaponry. Most dismissed this as nonsense: It was accepted fact by the intelligence community that if ever the world's most powerful nations (Russia, China, the USA) were to go to war, the skies would be full of exploding satellites. The technology is already there to destroy them. These things are completely defenseless; a rock thrown into orbit at sufficient velocity is going to knock them out.

Today the public eye has been turned again to an anti-satellite operation. Shortly after the space shuttle touched down, the US government reported success in intercepting the falling spy satellite. Due to its lower orbit at the time of its destruction, as much as fifty percent of the material was destroyed, with perhaps a fourth of the original material expected to rain to earth (mostly disintigrated) within one to two revolutions of the planet. At least we don't have to worry about stellar real estate getting more filled up with more debris.

What we do have to worry about is the return of "space war" rhetoric -- this time heard from the very government that started it! As reported by BBC news, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing, one Liu Jianchao, said China was deeply concerned over the "possible damage to security in outer space and to other countries." He went to demand "that the US... swiftly brief the international community with necessary data and information in time, so that relevant countries can take preventative measures." Further comments have not been any more positive.

Russia went further in their condemnation of the US action, effectively branding it a cover for demonstrating anti-satellite weapons technology in response to China. The Russian defense ministry argued that spacecraft and satellites had crashed to Earth before, some with toxic fuel on board, but that never before had the States used such "extraordinary measures." The United States government, naturally, denied this was their intent, and made the typical diplomatic noise that they were only taking care of the world at large.

With successful anti-ballistic missle tests already in America's record, one could argue that the US isn't "proving" anything new -- but timing is everything. Russia's response was only to be expected, given increasingly noisy anti-US rhetoric on issues ranging from Internet neutrality to Kosovo's independence to the ABM treaty. China's apparent hyprocisy on the issue is a bigger suprise, but nothing too shocking. No matter the US government's intentions in shooting down this satellite, it's clear that it hasn't done much to please the world's other two greatest nuclear powers. What will be telling is where the governments choose to go from here.

So what do you guys think? Are we looking at round two of the Strategic Defense Initiative -- this time from the ground up, rather than the sky down?